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• Connecticut Added 5,000 Jobs in July, but Unemployment Jumped to 8.5% Connecticut’s two employment-related survey programs are pointing in completely different directions this month making interpretation very difficult. [1] The business establishment survey, which estimates payroll jobs in Unemployment Insurance covered businesses, indicates that Connecticut added 5,100 positions in July, a decent performance for recent times. [2] However, the household survey, which measures household employment, unemployment and our unemployment rate, indicates sharp decreases in employment, increases in unemployment and a strong increase in our unemployment rate to 8.5%. “The complete disagreement between our two key indicators of labor market health in Connecticut makes an assessment of market conditions difficult at best this month,” said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor. “These programs have proven vital to our understanding of economic conditions in Connecticut, but we will have to wait until more data comes in to see if July’s results were a statistical anomaly or an early indicator of a turning point in the economy, as yet uncorroborated by other data.” NONFARM JOBS: The Connecticut July 2012 total nonfarm job estimate, seasonally adjusted, increased by 5,100 or 0.3% to 1,633,200. The first seven months of 2012 have now produced job growth of 9,700 (1,386 average per month net), just below last year’s pace of 10,400 (1,486 average per month net). Six of Connecticut’s ten major employing industries showed increases in July 2012, while four declined. Expanding industries were led by government (2,600, 1.1%). The public sector experienced a large job loss in June (-3,600, -1.5%) and seems to have ratcheted back this month with gains in local government (1,800, 1.2%) and state government (1,000, 1.5%), while federal government (-200, -1.1%) was lower. Education and health services, a strong gainer last month, again added jobs (2,400, 0.7%) in July, and leads all major industries in over-the-year job growth (13,000, 4.1%). Leisure and hospitality added 1,400 (1.0%) over the month. A nice gain from durable goods manufacturing (1,100, 0.9%) boosted the manufacturing (1,400, 0.9%) in July, while the nondurable goods (300, 0.8%) segment also increased. Other services (1,100, 1.9%) produced ample jobs this month with substantial gains coming from subdivisions related to summer camps. Professional and business services (200, 0.1%) showed a slight gain. The four declining industries were led by trade, transportation, and utilities (-1,600, -0.5%). Wholesale trade (700, 1.1%) and retail trade (-700, -0.4%) components had offsetting movements within the supersector. Construction & mining experienced a significant drop this month (-1,500, -3.0%). Financial activities (-700, -0.5%) also lost jobs, with both finance and insurance (-600, -0.5%) and real estate (-100, -0.5%) giving up positions. Information came in with a 200 job loss (-0.6%). RECESSION RECOVERY: Connecticut has now recovered 38,500, or 32.8%, of the 117,500 total nonfarm jobs lost in the March 2008 - February 2010 recessionary downturn. The private sector has now regained 48,300 (43.8%) of the 110,200 private jobs lost in that same recessionary period. The current job recovery highpoint in Connecticut (1,634,900) was reached in February 2012 during the record warm winter. Connecticut is just 1,700 jobs below this level (1,633,200) for July 2012. LABOR MARKET AREAS (LMAs): Four of the six major Connecticut Labor Market Areas had job gains in July 2012; while one declined and one was unchanged. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford (2,500, 0.5%) led in absolute growth over the month and New Haven had the best over-the-month percentage gain by a nose (1,700, 0.6%). Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk (2,200, 0.6%) had a strong overall showing this month as well. Waterbury had a slight monthly gain (100, 0.2%), and is leading in yearly percentage growth (1,400, 2.2%). Danbury was the only one to lose jobs this July (- 800, -1.2%). Norwich-New London was unchanged in employment this July and is the only LMA to have lost jobs over the year (-3,000, -2.3%). HOURS OF WORK: The workweek for employees in the private sector, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 34.0 hours in July 2012, up two-tenths of an hour from the July 2011 figure. WAGES: Average hourly earnings at $27.94, not seasonally adjusted, are now down twenty-one cents, or -0.7% below July 2011. The resulting average private sector weekly pay estimate was $949.96, down $4.33, or -0.5% over the year. LABOR FORCE DATA: Connecticut’s unemployment rate was estimated at 8.5% for July 2012. This is up four-tenths of a percentage point from June 2012, but four-tenths of a percentage point lower than July 2011 (8.9%). Connecticut’s seasonally adjusted labor force is calculated at 1,912,200 in July 2012, down 2,300 over the year (-0.1%), and down -6,600 (-0.3%) just from last month. Connecticut’s labor force peaked more than a year ago in February 2011, at an alltime high of 1,921,800, seasonally adjusted. UNEMPLOYMENT: Based on the household survey, the estimate of people unemployed, seasonally adjusted, was higher by 8,600 (5.6%) from June 2012 to 163,300 in July, and the unemployment rate bounced higher four-tenths of a percentage point to 8.5%. This is back to the same level measured for October 2011. The July 2012 United States unemployment rate was 8.3%, up one-tenth of a percentage point over the month. Connecticut is now back above the national unemployment rate. July’s average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time Connecticut filers decreased over the month by 551 (-10.3%) to 4,802, and were lower by 220 claims from July 2011, or -4.4%.d SOURCE: CTDOL