∙ CTDOL’s Take On April Employment Numbers

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”Preliminary April employment estimates show Connecticut lost 4,100 total nonfarm jobs even while the unemployment rate held steady at 7.7%. “’The decline in both monthly and annual job growth numbers in April is disappointing, but unusual seasonal patterns this past winter into spring make these numbers difficult to interpret,’ noted Andy Condon, Director of Office of Research. ‘Despite variability in growth from month to month we still appear to be on a path of positive, albeit modest job growth.’” Click on chart to enlarge: CTDOL further states, “Unusual weather patterns both years (a severe winter in early 2011 and unusually warm weather in early 2012) make month-to-month and April-to-April comparisons difficult to interpret. Some of the observed decline may be a statistical seasonal adjustment reversal from the unusual boost we received due to an enhanced warm winter in January (+5,400) and February (+6,000). ”The ‘normal’ upticks seen in the spring never fully materialized, in part because job levels in key sectors were already high due to a mild winter. In addition, the April 2011 job counts showed an unusually high and atypical gain (+9,400, 0.6%) which makes the April 2012 performance look weak. In April 2011, Connecticut was coming off a very snowy winter and experienced very strong seasonal April job growth which was not sustained in subsequent months.” Source: CTDOL

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