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"The July 2015 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 112 NABE members and selected other industry economists to a survey on business conditions in their firms or industries conducted June 17-July 1, 2015, and reflects second-quarter 2015 results and the near-term outlook.
“The July 2015 Business Conditions Survey results show a majority of panelists expect solid growth for the remainder of 2015…. The panel reports markedly increased shortages in the July survey, especially of skilled labor…. Wages: “Close to half of the panel (49%) anticipates wages will increase in the next three months (compared to 51% in the January survey and 46% in the April survey). Only 2% of respondents expect their firms to reduce wages and salaries in the next three months, similar to the 1% who held that view in the April survey. Employment: “The share of survey respondents reporting increased employment at their businesses during the second quarter rose modestly to 36%, up from 35% in April and 34% in January. Falling employment was reported by a larger percentage of respondents than in April: 12% of the panel reported employment declined at their firms in the latest quarter compared to 7% in the previous survey. "Employment declines were more prevalent for goods producers (25%) and transportation, utilities, information, communications firms (17%) than for finance, insurance, real estate firms (9%) or services businesses (5%)...." Please visit this link to read the full report: NationalAssnBusinessEconomics NOTE: This report is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in providing legal, financial, accounting or other professional advice. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Furthermore, while we do our best to ensure that these data are accurate, we suggest that any entity making decisions based on these numbers should verify the data at their source prior to making such decisions. © 2015 Connecticut Human Resource Reports, LLC |
21 July 2015
• U.S. Business Economists Say Economy Improving — July 2015
09 June 2015
• U.S. Business Economists: Labor Market, Economy Still Growing But At Slower Rate — June 2015
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”The NABE Outlook Survey panel’s median forecast for real GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3%—sharply lower than that reported in the March survey. The median forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.9%. The forecast for the annualized growth rate for 2015 is also lower—down to 2.4% from 3.1% in March. The annualized forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.9%.... ”The survey results reflect a slowing—but still robust—pace of improvement in the labor market. The median forecast for nonfarm payroll growth in 2015 declined from 251,000 in March to 217,000 in June, while the median forecast for 2016 slipped from 216,000 in March to 207,000. Payrolls expanded at a 260,000 monthly clip in 2014. Expectations for unemployment are similar to those expressed in March, with the unemployment rate anticipated to decline to 5.2% on average during the fourth quarter of 2015 and to 4.9% on average during the fourth quarter of 2016….” Please visit this link to read the full report: NationalAssociationBusinessEconomics NOTE: This report is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in providing legal, financial, accounting or other professional advice. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Furthermore, while we do our best to ensure that these data are accurate, we suggest that any entity making decisions based on these numbers should verify the data at their source prior to making such decisions. © 2015 Connecticut Human Resource Reports, LLC |
20 April 2015
• U.S. Business Economists Report Higher Wages, Employment — April 2015
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National Association for Business Economics:
Wages: "The share of respondents reporting rising wages and salaries at their firms increased again in the first quarter, to 45%, up from 31% in the January 2015 survey and 35% a year ago. "After surging in January 2015, the April BCS results show expectations for rising wages and salaries were relatively stable from the previous survey. Forty-six percent of respondents anticipate increases, for an NRI of 44, compared to an NRI of 46 in January’s of 2015, with 35% indicating additional hiring compared to 34% in survey. Employment: "There was a modest increase in the share of survey respondents reporting increased employment at their firms during the first quarter January (for the fourth quarter of 2014) and 28% in April 2014 (for the first quarter of 2014). In addition, the share of respondents reporting employment declines in the April survey edged lower over the quarter to 7%. As a result, the NRI edged up slightly from the previous survey to 28, the highest employment NRI since July 2014. "As measured by the NRI, expectations for hiring in the second quarter of 2015 are unchanged from those reported in January for hiring during the first quarter of 2015. The overall NRI held steady at 29. However, the steady NRI reflects equivalent increases in the shares of respondents expecting both increases and decreases in hiring. Please visit this link to read the full report: NABE NOTE: This report is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in providing legal, financial, accounting or other professional advice. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Furthermore, while we do our best to ensure that these data are accurate, we suggest that any entity making decisions based on these numbers should verify the data at their source prior to making such decisions. © 2015 Connecticut Human Resource Reports, LLC |
30 March 2015
• U.S. Business Economists Say Labor Market Improving — March 2015
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The outlook for the labor market is notably stronger says the National Association for Business Economics consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 50 professional forecasters. The median forecast for nonfarm payroll growth is 251,000 for 2015—a substantial upgrade from December’s forecast of 217,000—and 216,000 for 2016. The outlook for unemployment has also brightened: in December the 2015 unemployment rate was expected to average 5.6%; the current median forecast is 5.4%. The median forecast for 2016 is for unemployment to decline further to an average rate of just 5.1%. Please visit this link to read the report: NABE NOTE: This report is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in providing legal, financial, accounting or other professional advice. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Furthermore, while we do our best to ensure that these data are accurate, we suggest that any entity making decisions based on these numbers should verify the data at their source prior to making such decisions. © 2015 Connecticut Human Resource Reports, LLC |
22 July 2014
• U.S. Business Economists Report Q2 Business Conditions Improved…More Growth Expected
 ”Wage increases continued to spread, as 43% of respondents reported that their firms raised wages last quarter, the third straight quarterly rise in that share and more than double the share reporting increases a year ago. Somewhat fewer panelists (35%) expect their companies to increase wages in the next three months. See the summary report at this link: NABE.com |
24 March 2014
• U.S. Business Economists Predict Slow Job Growth
| “Further labor market recovery is anticipated. Nonfarm payrolls are forecasted to post an average monthly gain of 188,000 for all of 2014, slightly below the 194,000 recorded last year. ”Panelists anticipate stronger job creation of 205,000 per month in 2015. ”The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.4% in 2014, down a full percentage point from 2013, and decline to 6.1% in 2015.” Please visit this link to read the full article: NABE |