16 May 2014

• Connecticut's Employment Situation - April 2014


Preliminary nonfarm employment estimates from the business establishment payroll survey show a pattern of continuing job growth for Connecticut. The state added 2,200 total nonfarm jobs (0.1%) in April for the third consecutive monthly increase and has now added 6,900 jobs (0.4%) over the year. Private sector job gains composed 1,800 (0.1%) of last month’s increase and are stronger over the year (10,800, 0.8%) compared to overall nonfarm employment.

Connecticut’s unemployment rate was estimated at 6.9% in April, down one-tenth of a percentage point from March 2014, and down nine-tenths of a percentage point from the 7.8% rate a year ago. The underlying statistical components of the unemployment rate are quite positive trends with the first yearly gain in civilian labor force since March 2011, and the strongest annual residential employment gain (19,595, 1.1%) since April 2007. The number of unemployed residents declined 2,023 (-1.6%) in April and has declined by 17,302 (-11.9%) since April 2013.

“Both the establishment and household employment surveys are pointing to an improving labor market going forward for the state after extreme winter volatility,” said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research. “The expanding labor force, growing private sector work hours, and diminishing unemployment are encouraging signs for Connecticut’s economy. Even though the pace of Connecticut’s employment recovery is moderate, it seems to be on solid footing.”

Nonfarm Jobs (business establishment survey)

Nonfarm job estimates for the state increased again in April adding 2,200 (0.1%) to payrolls. This is the third straight monthly job gain. Over-the-year, nonfarm employment has increased 6,900 positions (0.4%). Job gains were 1,400 for February, 4,000 in March, and 2,200 in April (7,600 net positions in the last three months) and this helped make up for some of the job loss from the extreme January weather-related decline (-10,900). The three-month moving average of nonfarm employment (page 7), used to smooth month-to-month volatility, is depicting this spring rebound.

At the major industry supersector level, nonfarm job gains and losses were modest in April as no supersector changed by more than a thousand positions. Six major industry supersectors added positions and four declined.

The trade, transportation, and utilities (800, 0.3%) supersector led the job gainers. Transportation components were the most robust in this grouping, while a later-than-usual Easter had little impact on retail or wholesale trade. Also growing were the leisure and hospitality (700, 0.5%) and education and health services (700, 0.2%) supersectors.

Restaurants and hotels continue to be a strong contributor for leisure sectors, while colleges and universities resumed pace after the March spring break. Financial activities (500, 0.4%) were also positive in April with both real estate and finance and insurance drifting higher. The combined construction and mining (400, 0.7%) supersector, which had been fairly resilient this winter, continued to add jobs. The government supersector (400, 0.2%) also saw a small increase in April but has lost the most jobs of any supersector over the year (-3,900, 1.6%). Government has lost the most jobs since the overall employment recovery began (-11,100) in February 2010.

The four job-losing industry supersectors were led down by professional and business services (-600, -0.3%). The other services (-400, -0.6%) supersector was also lower in April. The manufacturing supersector (-200, -0.1%) components were also slightly lower. Durable goods was off (-400, -0.3%). The information (-100, -0.3%) supersector was just slightly down.

Recession recovery: Connecticut has recovered 66,300 positions, or 55.7% of the 119,100 seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs that were lost in the state during the March 2008 - February 2010 employment downturn. Connecticut’s jobs recovery is now 50 months old and is averaging approximately 1,326 jobs per month overall since February 2010. The core private sector has recovered at a faster pace and has now gotten back 77,400 (69.1%, 1,548 per month) of the 112,000 private jobs that were lost during the same recessionary period. Now at 1,660,200 nonfarm jobs for April, the state needs to reach the 1,713,000 level to start a true nonfarm employment expansion. This will require an additional 52,800 jobs going forward.

Labor Market Areas (LMAs): April 2014 preliminary nonfarm estimates reveal three of the six major Connecticut Labor Market Areas (Bureau of Labor Statistics-recognized LMAs) posted nonfarm job gains, while three showed declines. The employment growth last month was located along the shoreline. The Bridgeport-Stamford- Norwalk LMA (1,500, 0.4%) exhibited the best April job increase and also leads the state in regional employment growth over the year (7,200, 1.8%). The New Haven LMA (600, 0.2%) also had solid job gains in April, as did the Norwich-New London LMA (500, 0.4%). The Danbury LMA (-500, -0.7%), Hartford LMA (-400, -0.1%), and Waterbury LMA (-200, -0.3%) were all lower last month. The Danbury LMA (-100, -0.1%) joined the Norwich- New London LMA (-1,500, -1.2%) last month as the only two major LMA’s in the state to lose jobs over the year.

Hours and Earnings: The private sector workweek, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 33.7 hours in April 2014, up one-tenth of an hour from the year ago April 2013 estimate of 33.6 hours. Average hourly earnings at $27.84, not seasonally adjusted, were down 24 cents, or -0.9% from the April 2013 hourly private sector pay figure of $28.08. The resulting average private sector weekly pay was calculated at $938.21, down $5.28, or -0.6% over the year. The year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) in April 2014 was 2.0%.

Labor Force Data (residential household survey)

Connecticut’s unemployment rate was estimated at 6.9% for April 2014. This is down one-tenth of a percentage point from March 2013, and down nine-tenths of a percentage point from the April 2013 unemployment rate of 7.8%. April’s statewide civilian labor force (3,763, 0.2%) was higher again for the fourth month in a row, and is now slightly positive over the year (2,293, 0.1%). The unemployment rate in Connecticut has not been this low since it was 7.0% in January of 2009, in the midst of the financial crisis.

Unemployment: Based on the household survey, the number of unemployed, seasonally adjusted, declined by 2,023 (-1.6%) over the month to 128,481 in April 2014. The state’s number of unemployed residents has declined by 17,302 (-11.9%) since April 2013. The United States unemployment rate was 6.3% in April, down four-tenths of a percentage point from the March 2014 rate (6.3%), and lower by one and two-tenths of a percentage point from the April 2013 rate, when it was calculated at 7.5%.

The April 2014 average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time Connecticut filers (seasonally adjusted) increased over the month by 323 claims (7.9%) to 4,412, but were lower by 411 claims (-8.5%) from last April (4,823).

See the complete report at this link: CTDOL


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